The Net Zero 2050 scenarios aim to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This objective stems from the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aspires to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. The Net Zero 2050 trajectory has been adopted by 33 countries, including those in the European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom, which are among the world’s major greenhouse gas emitters (China and Brazil, however, aim for carbon neutrality by 2060).

As explored in our previous article, greenhouse gas emissions are closely linked to energy use, accounting for up to 75% of total emissions. Thus, the energy challenges of the Net Zero 2050 scenarios will revolve around meeting the needs of an economy twice as large, serving an additional two billion people, with entirely decarbonized energy. This challenge is immense, requiring the mobilization of numerous developing sectors and technologies still in their experimental stages. It primarily depends on the electrification of energy needs coupled with the massive deployment of decarbonized energy sources (renewable and nuclear) and the emergence of new, less carbon-intensive energy vectors (hydrogen, e-fuels, e-gas). Residual emissions will be offset by advanced carbon capture systems.

To provide context, we will first review the evolution of energy needs by 2050, as outlined in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) roadmap. Next, we will examine the technological levers proposed for decarbonizing electricity production and other energy vectors, along with the challenges associated with each. Finally, we will address the remaining uses of fossil fuels and the envisioned carbon capture technologies. We will conclude by highlighting the key elements for the success of this scenario according to the IEA.

I) Energy Needs in 2050

By 2050, global energy consumption is expected to reach a total of 170,000 TWh, representing a 7–8% reduction compared to 2022 levels. This decrease is largely attributed to greater energy efficiency and responsible consumption (energy sobriety), combined with the adoption of more energy-efficient equipment and strategies for electrifying energy use. Paradoxically, while overall energy consumption will decline, global electricity production will increase by a factor of 2.5 over this period (see projection below).

How is this possible?

In general, electrical systems are significantly more efficient than their thermal equivalents. For example, in mobility, an electric car converts about 70% of primary energy into motion. In contrast, a combustion engine vehicle loses up to 80% of its energy to heat and friction, meaning electrification delivers an approximately 60% primary energy gain in this case.

Another concrete example is the replacement of gas boilers. Even the most efficient gas boilers convert only 60% of primary energy into heat. By comparison, heat pumps achieve efficiencies greater than 100% due to their ability to capture ambient heat from the environment.

Electricity could account for as much as 50–70% of energy consumption in key sectors like transport and housing by 2050, compared to just 20% today.

Technologies that replace fossil fuel sources already exist and are undergoing massive deployment. Their use has already significantly reduced CO₂ emissions in industrialized countries like France and Germany (a 30% reduction in CO₂ emissions compared to 1990). To amplify this impact, it is crucial to ensure that the primary energy sources used for electricity production are themselves decarbonized.

II) How to Decarbonize Electricity Production?

II.1) The Renewable Revolution

A common feature of all scenarios aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050 is the massive use of renewable energies: solar, wind, hydroelectric, and biomass. Although these currently account for only about 15% of the global energy mix, they are expected to play a dominant role, reaching up to 85%. Their installation is relatively straightforward, and their competitive costs (20–50 $/MWh) support rapid development. For example, in 2023, China installed as many solar panels as Europe did in the past 20 years.

Countries like Germany and Spain already use renewables for more than 50% of their energy mix. However, two major obstacles limit their implementation:

II.1.1) Intermittency

Renewable energies depend on weather conditions (wind for wind turbines, sunlight for solar panels), making them non-dispatchable. Energy is produced when conditions are favorable but not necessarily when demand is high, leading to significant losses of unused energy.

Solutions being explored include:

• Batteries: They smooth production in the short term, particularly between day and night.
• Pumped-storage hydroelectricity: Excess energy is used to pump water into reservoirs, balancing seasonal energy needs.
• Electrolysis for hydrogen production: Although efficiency is low (around 25–30% after reconversion), this would otherwise be wasted energy. Hydrogen is viewed as a major future energy vector (« power to gas »).
• Smart grids: These intelligent networks improve the efficiency of energy transportation and storage systems.

II.1.2) Material Availability

The development of renewable energy requires specific resources:

• Wind: Composites for turbine blades.
• Solar: Silicon for panels.
• Batteries: Lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements.

Extracting these materials raises sustainability and supply chain concerns, particularly since mining operations often still rely on fossil fuel-based equipment. Fortunately, recycling—particularly of batteries, which can achieve a 95% recovery rate—is a key lever for reducing resource extraction. Despite these challenges, current reserves allow for massive deployment of renewable energy without significantly increasing the environmental impact of mining.

II.1.3) The Renewable Revolution in Summary

Intermittency is not a major barrier to the deployment of renewable technologies. As discussed, emerging solutions are addressing this issue. Therefore, renewables are viewed as the primary lever for decarbonizing electricity production.

II.2) The Revival of Nuclear Energy

II.2.1) Evolution Perspectives for the Conventional Sector

While criticized in some countries due to the risks it entails, nuclear energy remains a formidable tool for producing decarbonized energy. This is largely thanks to the energy density of fissile fuels, particularly uranium-235, which is nearly 90,000 times greater than that of oil. This density allows for the generation of significant amounts of energy from a small quantity of raw material, resulting in low-intensity mining operations, a reduced land footprint, and an excellent overall carbon impact, with an estimated 2.5 GT of CO₂ avoided globally thanks to nuclear power.

Operating costs for nuclear energy are higher than for renewables (ranging from $60 to $120/MWh). However, nuclear has the advantage of being a dispatchable energy source, meaning it can produce energy on demand, unlike intermittent renewables.

Globally, nuclear energy currently accounts for 10% of primary energy production. The Net Zero 2050 scenarios anticipate that this proportion will remain stable in the global energy mix. Installed capacity is therefore expected to more than double, from 417 GW to 916 GW by 2050. China, in particular, stands out for its nuclear expansion and is expected to account for one-third of the world’s installed nuclear capacity by 2050.

II.2.2) The Emergence of SMRs

After decades of focusing on large-scale facilities, the nuclear sector is now shifting towards miniaturized reactors, known as Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). According to the Nuclear Energy Association (NEA), over 98 of these reactors are currently under development worldwide, utilizing various technologies such as pressurized water, high temperature, fast neutrons, or molten salts.

These reactors can serve multiple purposes: heat production, electricity generation, cogeneration (electricity and heat), seawater desalination, or even cargo propulsion. Essentially, they are scaled-down models of current reactors, operating on the same principle of bombarding fissile nuclei with neutrons. However, they are designed for passive safety, meaning they can shut down without external intervention in the event of an accident.

Currently, the only commercialized models are the Russian KLT-40S and the Chinese HTR-PM. Nevertheless, their deployment remains marginal and is not extensively studied in Net Zero 2050 scenarios.

II.2.3) Nuclear Fusion

Although discovered in the late 1920s, nuclear fusion remains beyond reach in the short term. Fusion involves combining two light atoms into a heavier nucleus (deuterium and tritium into helium) to produce energy. The main advantage of this reaction is that it generates no pollution.

This reaction, akin to the energy process of stars, occurs at around 150 million degrees Celsius within a vacuum chamber, where the fusion material (in plasma form) is contained by a strong magnetic field. Essentially, it’s about « putting a star in a box. »

The ITER project, the largest scientific endeavor in human history, brings together 35 nations and aims to create a thermonuclear plasma for over 400 seconds with an efficiency ratio of 10. This colossal undertaking is intended to demonstrate the viability of the technology. However, ITER is merely a demonstrator, and the first plasma, initially scheduled for 2025, has been delayed to 2033. As such, this technology will not be ready in time to contribute to the current energy transition.

II.2.4) The Revival of Nuclear Energy in Summary

Alongside renewable energy, the nuclear sector represents the other major opportunity for decarbonizing electricity production. However, its high operating costs and the technical difficulties associated with building nuclear plants (e.g., recent examples like Olkiluoto-3 and Flamanville, which faced 12 years of delays and took 20 years to complete) limit its deployment to advanced economies.

III) Decarbonizing New Energy Vectors

III.1) Hydrogen

III.1.1) Perspectives and Evolution

The smallest chemical element, hydrogen, emerged shortly after the Big Bang and is abundant on Earth, often bonded to other molecules, notably oxygen in water. However, it is very rare in its gaseous form, dihydrogen, which is of interest for industrial applications. Currently, only a small deposit is being exploited in Mali. In Europe, debates persist regarding the evaluation of hydrogen reserves in rock formations, and the environmental impact of its extraction and purification remains uncertain. This natural form of hydrogen is also referred to as « white hydrogen. »

For now, hydrogen is primarily produced from natural gas (via steam methane reforming) for various uses: refining petroleum products, synthesizing ammonia for fertilizer production, and reducing iron ore. This type of hydrogen, called « gray hydrogen, » is highly carbon-intensive, emitting 11 tons of CO₂ per ton produced and accounting for 95% of the hydrogen produced globally. When CO₂ emitted during its production is captured, it becomes « blue hydrogen, » with a reduced carbon footprint.

The most promising hydrogen for energy purposes, especially in sectors that are hard to decarbonize, is « green hydrogen, » produced through water electrolysis powered by renewable energy. However, significant challenges remain for its large-scale deployment.

III.1.2) Challenges in Producing Green Hydrogen

The first challenge lies in producing green hydrogen on an industrial scale. Alkaline electrolysis, the only carbon-free hydrogen production process, has a notable flaw: it takes time to reach full capacity, making it poorly suited for intermittent energy sources. Two emerging technologies address this issue:

• Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM): Made of polymers, the membrane acts as an electrolyte, separating oxygen from hydrogen. It reaches full capacity quickly. In 2021, Air Liquide installed a facility in Quebec using this technology, capable of producing 8 tons of hydrogen per day using hydroelectric power.
• Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOEC): Operating at high temperatures (600–800°C), this method is faster than alkaline electrolysis but is only relevant when an unutilized heat source is available nearby.

Regardless of the method, the materials used (e.g., iridium and platinum) are expensive and raise sustainability concerns. The premature aging of installations, caused by variations in primary energy sources, is another significant obstacle.

Decarbonizing the 95 million tons of hydrogen currently consumed annually is already a considerable challenge. Adding new uses (heavy transport, synthetic fuel production, mobility) would increase demand to 140 million tons by 2030, according to the IEA. This additional 55 million tons would need to be produced via electrolysis powered by renewable resources. The cost is substantial: current green hydrogen costs range between €3 and €6/kg, compared to €1–2/kg for gray hydrogen. In Net Zero scenarios, hydrogen is projected to meet 10–20% of global energy needs by 2050.

III.1.3) Hydrogen Storage and Transport

In its gaseous form, hydrogen is highly explosive, making its transport and storage complex. Its low density means that atmospheric pressure storage and transport facilities are bulky. Solutions include:

• Compression: At very high pressure (350–700 bars), though this consumes about 15% of the hydrogen’s energy content.
• Liquefaction: While increasing density by 800 times, this process results in an energy loss of 30–35%. Currently, this method is primarily used in the aerospace sector.

For short distances, liquid hydrogen is transported via insulated pipelines, while long distances rely on cryogenic tanker trucks or high-pressure cylinders. Storage involves multi-layered tanks (made of carbon fibers and resins) to ensure tightness and rigidity, though these remain costly.

Research is exploring new storage methods, such as materials capable of absorbing hydrogen and releasing it at ambient temperature and moderate pressure (e.g., the European Hycare project).

III.1.4) Applications and Recycling

Hydrogen is also used in fuel cells, which function similarly to an inverted electrolyzer. Although discovered in the 19th century, this technology was eclipsed by thermal engines. Today, it powers industrial sites as well as light vehicles, such as the Toyota Mirai or Hyundai ix35.

The challenge is extending the lifespan of these fuel cells (beyond a few thousand hours) while reducing material costs, such as platinum electrodes (€29,000/kg) and membranes (costing hundreds of euros per square meter). A suitable recycling industry will be essential to make this technology viable, sustainable, and affordable.

III.1.5) Additional Potential

Another potential use for hydrogen is methanation, which involves creating synthetic methane from CO₂ or CO captured via carbon capture processes and hydrogen, following the Sabatier reaction. Methane, being more widespread than hydrogen, has the advantage of utilizing existing gas infrastructure. However, the conversion process incurs significant energy losses.

III.1.6) Hydrogen in Summary

While promising on paper, hydrogen remains an emerging sector. The primary challenge lies in decarbonizing current uses. Large-scale deployment of the hydrogen sector relies on successfully decarbonizing electricity production as a prerequisite, followed by technological innovations for production, storage, and new applications, as well as the establishment of appropriate recycling systems. The hydrogen sector is expected to mature by the 2040s.

III.2) Biofuels / E-Fuels

III.2.1) Evolution and Prospects

In the 2000s, biofuels were presented as a revolutionary solution for decarbonizing transportation but were quickly criticized for their intensive use of agricultural land and the competition they create between farmland for food and energy production. However, new generations of biofuels are proving to be an indispensable alternative for decarbonizing sectors where electrification is not feasible. Their adoption is steadily progressing, particularly in emerging economies like India, Brazil, and Indonesia. These biofuels are expected to account for about 7% of global oil demand, saving up to 200 billion liters annually. By 2050, they could represent 27% of global transport fuels, contributing to a reduction of 2.1 gigatons of CO₂ per year, roughly 20% of the emission reductions needed in the transport sector.

As of 2023, biofuel production consists of 62% bioethanol, 27% biodiesel, 10% renewable diesel, and just 0.34% bio-kerosene. Despite its small share, bio-kerosene is crucial for decarbonizing the aviation sector. By 2028, bio-kerosene could represent 1% of total kerosene demand. This sustainable aviation fuel is vital for decarbonizing this industry, offering a 65–85% reduction in life-cycle emissions compared to conventional fossil fuels, depending on its production methods and raw materials.

By 2050, biofuels could account for 60–70% of the emissions reductions required in the aviation sector to meet carbon neutrality targets. However, production costs and the availability of sustainable raw materials remain significant barriers to widespread deployment.

III.2.2) New Generations of Biofuels and Research

Research is increasingly focusing on new raw material sources for biofuels.

• Second-generation biofuels: These use biomass residues or perennial plants like miscanthus giganteus. This generation has the advantage of recycling waste or using plants that require minimal maintenance and can grow on lower-quality or even polluted land. However, they require energy to separate cellulose from plants or to transport them to refineries.
• Third-generation biofuels: These rely on reactors containing algae or other microorganisms. They avoid competition with agricultural land but require constant environmental control. Large-scale production is not yet feasible.
• Fourth-generation biofuels: Research is underway into genetically modified algae, which could significantly boost production.

Finally, artificial photosynthesis, which produces chemical compounds directly from solar energy and CO₂ by mimicking plant processes, is a concept still in development. While potentially capable of producing hydrogen or methane, it is unlikely to play a role in the energy transition in the near term.

III.2.3) Biofuels in Summary

Biofuels, particularly e-fuels, represent a promising pathway for decarbonization, although they face numerous challenges. The primary obstacle remains the cost of production and the availability of sustainable raw materials. Nevertheless, advancements in advanced generations, such as the use of microalgae and research into artificial photosynthesis, pave the way for solutions that compete less with agricultural land and better meet the decarbonization needs of specific sectors, such as aviation and heavy industry.

While research continues to advance, the widespread adoption of these technologies is unlikely before 2035 and will require significant political commitment and adequate funding to emerge fully.

III.3) Biogas

III.3.1) Consumption Trends and Prospects

Biogas, produced through the degradation of organic matter, plays a key role in the energy transition as a renewable and locally available energy source. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global biogas consumption could triple by 2050, reaching nearly 3,000 TWh/year, which would represent about 10% of global gas demand in a Net Zero scenario. This growth is contingent on the expanded deployment of anaerobic digestion (methanization) and the development of advanced technologies such as methanation and other emerging processes.

III.3.2) Methanization: A Proven Technology

Methanization involves converting organic waste into biogas through a biological process in an anaerobic environment. It utilizes various substrates, including agricultural, industrial, and household waste, as well as sewage sludge. The biogas produced primarily consists of methane (50–70%) and carbon dioxide. After purification, it can be used for electricity generation, heat production, or injected into gas networks.

This technology is especially well-suited for agricultural and industrial applications, allowing waste valorization while producing local, decarbonized energy. Furthermore, the solid residue of the process, known as digestate, is employed as a natural fertilizer, reinforcing the principles of a circular economy.

III.3.3) Methanation: A Solution for Renewable Energy Storage

Methanation serves as a complementary technology to methanization. It involves combining CO₂ (often captured from industrial processes) with green hydrogen to produce synthetic methane. This chemical process, based on the Sabatier reaction, offers a solution for storing excess renewable electricity. The synthetic methane can subsequently be injected into existing natural gas transport and storage infrastructure.

However, methanation remains energy-intensive. Producing the necessary hydrogen presents a significant challenge, both in terms of cost and its reliance on intermittent renewable energy sources.

III.3.4) Other Biogas Production Technologies

Beyond methanization and methanation, several emerging technologies are diversifying biogas sources and improving efficiency:

• Pyrolysis and Gasification: Thermochemical processes that convert dry biomass (e.g., wood, agricultural waste) into syngas, which can be refined into methane.
• Dry Fermentation: A variation of methanization designed for substrates with low water content, reducing the cost of water treatment.
• Microalgae Cultivation: Producing biogas from algae offers a promising approach, as it avoids competition with agricultural land and can utilize wastewater.

III.3.5) Biogas in Summary

The potential of biogas is immense, but its success will require strong political support, investments in infrastructure, and a regulatory framework that promotes its integration into energy systems. By 2050, biogas and synthetic methane could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than 1.5 gigatons per year, while enhancing global energy security.

To achieve these goals, advancements in CO₂ capture, process efficiency, and the development of optimized supply chains will be critical. Methanization, being a mature and cost-effective process, already demonstrates significant potential for public-scale biomass waste valorization.

IV) The Remaining Role of Fossil Fuels

IV.1) Fossil Fuels in the Net Zero 2050 Scenario

In the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero 2050 scenario, fossil fuels continue to play a role, albeit drastically reduced. While they accounted for around 80% of the global energy mix in 2022, this share is projected to decline to about 20% by 2050. This reduction is made possible by the transition to renewable and decarbonized energy sources such as wind, solar, and green hydrogen, as well as the electrification of the industrial, transport, and building sectors.

However, certain applications—particularly in heavy industry (e.g., cement and steel production) and in aviation and maritime transport—will still require fossil fuels, albeit increasingly decarbonized. In these sectors, fossil fuels will mainly be used in the form of synthetic fuels or with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to mitigate emissions.

The IEA also highlights the crucial role of technologies like CCS and methanation, which use captured CO₂ to produce synthetic methane. These technologies are key in reducing residual emissions, allowing fossil fuels to maintain a place in the energy mix while aligning with climate goals. However, the transition will not be uniform across regions and sectors—some areas may experience slower shifts due to specific energy demands and the lack of large-scale substitution technologies.

The IEA emphasizes that achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 will require not only massive efforts to reduce fossil fuel use but also the development of alternatives that maintain flexibility while minimizing climate impacts.

IV.2) The Role of Fossil Fuels in Chemical Production

As of 2023, 20% of global oil consumption is used for the production of basic chemicals. These chemicals are vital to modern life, found in plastics, cosmetics, packaging, and countless other products. Reducing oil use in this sector to zero is not currently feasible, as these materials remain essential.

Thus, fossil resources will not entirely disappear. The Net Zero Emissions scenario can be viewed as an attenuation of fossil fuel use and impact, largely achieved through carbon capture technologies.

V) How to Eliminate Remaining CO₂ Emissions

V.1) Carbon Capture Technologies: Current State and Future Prospects

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are critical in reducing CO₂ emissions, particularly in hard-to-decarbonize sectors like heavy industry, energy, and specific transport segments. While the current deployment of these technologies is limited, their expansion is supported by increasing policies and investments.

V.2) Current Status of CCS Deployment

Today, carbon capture is primarily used at select industrial and power generation sites. Globally, there are approximately 20 operational carbon capture projects, most of which are in North America and Europe. These projects collectively capture a relatively small amount of CO₂ compared to what is needed to meet climate goals.

As of 2023, global CO₂ capture capacity was about 40 million tons per year, a tiny fraction of the 40 billion tons of CO₂ emitted annually by human activities.

The main barriers to CCS deployment include:

• High costs of implementation.
• Lack of large-scale transport and storage infrastructure.
• Current capture costs are estimated at $50–100 per ton of CO₂, making it expensive compared to other emission reduction solutions.

V.3) Key Carbon Capture Approaches

1. Post-Combustion Capture
   • Captures CO₂ from flue gases after combustion.
   • Commonly used in industrial and power plants, relying on chemical solvents to absorb CO₂.
   • It is the most mature method but remains energy-intensive and costly.
2. Pre-Combustion Capture
   • Extracts CO₂ before fuel combustion, often during coal gasification or natural gas reforming processes.
   • More efficient but requires specialized infrastructure, commonly used in hydrogen production.
3. Oxyfuel Combustion
   • Uses pure oxygen instead of air for combustion, producing CO₂-rich flue gases that are easier to capture.
   • Promising but still in the demonstration phase for large-scale applications.
4. Direct Air Capture (DAC)
   • Captures CO₂ directly from the atmosphere.
   • Highly promising for reducing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations but currently expensive and energy-intensive, limiting its scalability.

V.4) CCS in Summary

The outlook for CCS deployment is positive but hinges on:

• Reducing costs through technological innovation.
• Improving technologies to increase efficiency.
• Establishing supportive policies, such as carbon markets, public subsidies, and carbon capture credits.

The IEA estimates that by 2050, achieving net-zero emissions will require capturing 7.6 billion tons of CO₂ annually—a significant increase from today’s levels.

Public policies play a pivotal role in enabling this expansion. Initiatives such as the EU’s carbon storage projects and large-scale efforts like Northern Lights in Norway (which aims to store up to 5 million tons of CO₂ annually) showcase the potential for CCS at scale.

Emerging technologies, particularly direct air capture, could gain importance in the coming decades if innovations make them more cost-effective. Companies like Climeworks and Global CCS Institute have launched pilot projects to refine and improve these approaches.

To meet global climate targets, CCS deployment must accelerate significantly. While progress has been made, particularly in Europe and North America, challenges such as cost and infrastructure remain. However, with technological advancements and supportive policies, CCS has the potential to capture significant volumes of CO₂ and contribute decisively to the energy transition.

Conclusion :

The goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 is ambitious but achievable, provided that the available technical and economic levers are effectively mobilized. As we have seen, technological solutions—from renewable energy to nuclear power, including hydrogen, biofuels, and carbon capture technologies—are either in place or under development. This transition also relies on massive investments and their long-term profitability. The ability to secure these funds is crucial to accelerating infrastructure deployment and fostering innovation.

However, it is equally important to acknowledge the limitations of this analysis: we have focused on technical and economic aspects, leaving aside the social, political, and geographical dimensions. Yet it is precisely these dimensions that could determine the success or failure of the energy transition.

• Governance: The energy transition demands a stable and coherent political vision. Governments must establish long-term regulatory frameworks and incentive policies, independent of electoral cycles, to ensure continuity in investments and climate actions.
• Citizen Mobilization: Public engagement is essential. The energy transition will reshape lifestyles, create new employment opportunities, but also face resistance. Educating, including, and supporting citizens throughout this process is fundamental to preventing social fractures.
• Geographic and Social Equity: Not all countries start from the same baseline, and not all citizens will be affected equally. Reducing inequalities between regions, supporting the most vulnerable economies, and offering solutions tailored to each local context are priorities to avoid global imbalances.
• Investments and Profitability: The funds required for this transition are colossal, but their long-term profitability depends on the creation of sustainable markets, technological innovation, and effective international collaboration.

If the energy transition fails, it will likely not be due to technological limitations or a lack of economic resources, but rather because of ineffective governance, insufficient global coordination, or a lack of public support.

In conclusion, carbon neutrality is more than a technical goal; it is a human, political, and global challenge. It tests our ability to collaborate, innovate, and act in solidarity. It represents a unique opportunity to rethink our ways of life, reduce inequalities, and build a sustainable future. This challenge requires immediate action with ambition and determination because every decision made today shapes the world we will leave to future generations.

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Les dossier de science et avenir: Quelle energies pour demain?

https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2023/transport-biofuels